Probability

Lesson 5

Math

Unit 8

7th Grade

Lesson 5 of 9

Objective


Design and conduct simulations to model real-world situations.

Common Core Standards


Core Standards

  • 7.SP.C.7 — Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.

Criteria for Success


  1. Understand that real-world outcomes can be simulated using probability models and tools. 
  2. Describe how a single event can be simulated using an experiment. 
  3. Conduct an experiment to simulate a single real-world event, and collect and analyze the data (MP.4).

Tips for Teachers


Lesson Materials

  • Plastic cups (non-see-through ) (3 per small group)
  • Plastic balls (like ping-pong) (1 per small group)
Fishtank Plus

Unlock features to optimize your prep time, plan engaging lessons, and monitor student progress.

Anchor Problems

25-30 minutes


Problem 1

How could you design an experiment that could simulate these events? 

a.   Two friends go out to eat at a restaurant. One person will be randomly chosen to pay the bill. Which friend pays the bill?

b.   10% of the population is left-handed. Will the next person you meet be left-handed?

c.   Your teacher has four different versions of a quiz that she will distribute equally to the class. Which quiz will you take?

Guiding Questions

Create a free account or sign in to access the Guiding Questions for this Anchor Problem.

Student Response

Upgrade to Fishtank Plus to view Sample Response.

Problem 2

You are playing a video game. At the end of every level, there are three boxes. One contains 10,000 points, and the other two are empty. You are allowed to choose one of the boxes, but before the one you choose opens, one of the other boxes always opens to show that it is empty. The game allows you to either (1) stay with your first choice or (2) switch to the other unopened box.

For example, there are three boxes: A, B, and C. Suppose you choose box B.

Before box B opens, one of the other boxes opens to show that it is empty. Imagine that in this case it is box C:

The game allows you to stay with your first choice or to switch to the other unopened box. Should you stay or should you switch? Design and use a simulation to help you decide. 

Guiding Questions

Create a free account or sign in to access the Guiding Questions for this Anchor Problem.

Student Response

Upgrade to Fishtank Plus to view Sample Response.

References

Illustrative Mathematics Stay or Switch?

Stay or Switch?, accessed on April 5, 2018, 2:14 p.m., is licensed by Illustrative Mathematics under either the CC BY 4.0 or CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. For further information, contact Illustrative Mathematics.

Problem Set

15-20 minutes


Give your students more opportunities to practice the skills in this lesson with a downloadable problem set aligned to the daily objective.

Target Task

5-10 minutes


In a video game, the chance of rain each day is always 30%. At the beginning of each day in the video game, the computer generates a random integer between 1 and 50.

Explain how you could use this number to simulate the weather in the video game.

Student Response

Upgrade to Fishtank Plus to view Sample Response.

References

Open Up Resources Grade 7 Unit 8 Lesson 6 Teacher Version6.4 "Video Game Weather"

Grade 7 Unit 8 Lesson 6 Teacher Version is made available by Open Up Resources under the CC BY 4.0 license. Copyright © 2017 Open Up Resources. Download for free at openupresources.org. Accessed April 5, 2018, 1:03 p.m..

Additional Practice


The following resources include problems and activities aligned to the objective of the lesson that can be used for additional practice or to create your own problem set.

Next

Conduct simulations with multiple events to determine probabilities.

Lesson 6
icon/arrow/right/large

Request a Demo

See all of the features of Fishtank in action and begin the conversation about adoption.

Learn more about Fishtank Learning School Adoption.

Contact Information

School Information

What courses are you interested in?

ELA

Math

Are you interested in onboarding professional learning for your teachers and instructional leaders?

Yes

No

Any other information you would like to provide about your school?

We Handle Materials So You Can Focus on Students

We Handle Materials So You Can Focus on Students

We've got you covered with rigorous, relevant, and adaptable math lesson plans for free